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AGO

Assured Guaranty Ltd.

AGO

Assured Guaranty Ltd. • NYSE
$90.54 ▲ 0.54% (+0.49)
Market Cap $4.17 B
52w High $96.50
52w Low $74.09
Dividend Yield 1.36%
P/E 11.1
Volume 160.94K
Outstanding Shares 46.11M

Income Statement

Period Revenue Operating Expense Net Income Net Profit Margin Earnings Per Share EBITDA
Q3-2025 $199M ▼ $88M ▼ $105M ▲ 52.764% ▲ $0 ▼ $157M ▲
Q2-2025 $278M ▼ $112M ▲ $103M ▼ 37.05% ▼ $2.1 ▼ $156M ▼
Q1-2025 $325M ▲ $51M ▼ $176M ▲ 54.154% ▲ $3.49 ▲ $251M ▲
Q4-2024 $152M ▼ $88M ▲ $18M ▼ 11.842% ▼ $0.36 ▼ $53M ▼
Q3-2024 $252M $78M $171M 67.857% $3.23 $242M

Balance Statement

Period Cash & Short-term Total Assets Total Liabilities Total Equity
Q3-2025 $2.493B ▲ $12.101B ▲ $6.364B ▼ $5.658B ▲
Q2-2025 $2.151B ▼ $12.095B ▲ $6.366B ▲ $5.633B ▲
Q1-2025 $2.291B ▼ $11.938B ▲ $6.281B ▼ $5.59B ▲
Q4-2024 $2.465B ▼ $11.901B ▼ $6.348B ▼ $5.495B ▼
Q3-2024 $2.665B $12.291B $6.509B $5.728B

Cash Flow Statement

Period Net Income Cash From Operations Cash From Investing Cash From Financing Net Change Free Cash Flow
Q3-2025 $105M ▲ $55M ▼ $-73M ▼ $-140M ▲ $-161M ▼ $55M ▼
Q2-2025 $0 ▼ $78M ▼ $217M ▲ $-157M ▲ $143M ▲ $78M ▼
Q1-2025 $176M ▲ $87M ▲ $134M ▼ $-170M ▲ $55M ▲ $87M ▲
Q4-2024 $0 ▲ $46M ▲ $236M ▲ $-324M ▼ $-46M ▼ $46M ▲
Q3-2024 $-187M $17M $204M $-159M $65M $17M

Revenue by Products

Product Q4-2024Q1-2025Q2-2025Q3-2025
Asset Management Segment
Asset Management Segment
 $0 ▲$10.00M ▲$10.00M ▲$10.00M ▲
Insurance Segment
Insurance Segment
 $200.00M ▲$240.00M ▲$200.00M ▼$210.00M ▲

Five-Year Company Overview

Income Statement

Income Statement Revenue has been fairly steady over the last five years, without strong growth but also without any structural decline. Profitability, however, has been quite volatile, with some years showing very strong earnings and others much weaker results. This swingy pattern is typical for a guaranty insurer, where results can be heavily influenced by credit conditions, reserve changes, and investment marks. Overall, the business looks capable of generating solid profits over time, but with meaningful year‑to‑year noise in reported earnings and per‑share results.

Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows a gradual slimming down in total assets, which is common as older insured exposures run off and the portfolio matures. Shareholders’ equity has moved around but remains substantial, giving the company a sizable capital buffer for its guarantees. Debt has crept higher compared with a few years ago but does not dominate the capital structure. The picture is of a capital‑intensive but fairly well‑capitalized insurer that still has room to absorb stress, while carefully managing leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash Flow Cash flow has been more volatile than earnings, with several earlier years showing large outflows and then a strong rebound more recently. The pattern suggests timing effects from claims, recoveries, and investment activity rather than heavy spending on fixed assets, since capital expenditures are very low. Free cash flow largely mirrors operating cash flow, so periods of strong cash generation can support capital returns or balance sheet strengthening, but investors should expect lumpiness rather than a smooth trend.

Competitive Edge

Competitive Edge Assured Guaranty is the clear scale leader in the municipal bond insurance niche, with a long track record and a strong reputation for credit strength. High capital and rating requirements make it hard for new competitors to enter, which helps protect its position. Its expertise in complex public finance and structured deals, plus the consolidation of its U.S. guaranty entities, further deepen its moat by improving efficiency and capital flexibility. That said, the underlying market for bond insurance is mature and sensitive to overall credit conditions, so growth depends more on market share, product expansion, and cycles than on broad industry expansion.

Innovation and R&D

Innovation and R&D The standout innovation is AG Analytics, a data and analytics platform built from the company’s own underwriting tools and now being offered to outside market participants. This moves AGO beyond pure insurance into fintech‑style services, potentially creating a new, fee‑based revenue stream and reinforcing its role as a key intelligence provider in municipal credit. The firm is also innovating through product design and partnerships, such as its asset‑management combination with Sound Point, specialty reinsurance offerings, and life‑insurance capital solutions. While it does not spend heavily on traditional R&D, it is clearly using its data, models, and structuring skills to create differentiated solutions in a conservative industry.

Summary

Assured Guaranty combines a relatively stable top line with earnings and cash flows that can swing meaningfully from year to year, reflecting the nature of its credit guaranty business. Its balance sheet remains a central strength, with substantial capital, manageable leverage, and the scale needed to maintain strong ratings and trust with issuers and investors. Strategically, the company benefits from a protected niche, deep expertise, and growing diversification into asset management, specialty reinsurance, and now analytics technology. Key opportunities lie in successfully scaling AG Analytics, extracting value from its asset‑management stake, and expanding into new asset classes, while key risks include credit downturns, rating pressure, and the inherently cyclical demand for financial guarantees.

NEWS

November 6, 2025 · 4:08 PM UTC

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Reports Results for Third Quarter 2025

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November 5, 2025 · 7:00 AM UTC

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.34 per Common Share

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October 23, 2025 · 10:30 AM UTC

Assured Guaranty Ltd. to Report Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results on November 6, 2025

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