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AMBC

Ambac Financial Group, Inc.

AMBC

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. • NYSE
$9.01 ▲ 2.62% (+0.23)
Market Cap $431.88 M
52w High $13.64
52w Low $5.99
Dividend Yield 0%
P/E -9.19
Volume 822.27K
Outstanding Shares 47.93M

Income Statement

Period Revenue Operating Expense Net Income Net Profit Margin Earnings Per Share EBITDA
Q3-2025 $66.605M ▲ $69.641M ▲ $-112.62M ▼ -169.086% ▼ $-2.35 ▼ $-16.148M ▼
Q2-2025 $54.957M ▼ $55.851M ▲ $-72.699M ▼ -132.283% ▼ $-0.44 ▲ $-7.663M ▼
Q1-2025 $62.756M ▲ $53.161M ▲ $-46.391M ▲ -73.923% ▼ $-0.91 ▼ $-477K ▲
Q4-2024 $-85.185M ▼ $-64.508M ▼ $-548.449M ▼ 643.833% ▲ $1.67 ▲ $-117.519M ▼
Q3-2024 $70.005M $54.849M $-27.503M -39.287% $-0.59 $-9.908M

Balance Statement

Period Cash & Short-term Total Assets Total Liabilities Total Equity
Q3-2025 $478.693M ▲ $2.148B ▼ $1B ▼ $843.384M ▼
Q2-2025 $310.438M ▼ $8.522B ▲ $7.304B ▲ $859.839M ▲
Q1-2025 $314.839M ▼ $8.253B ▲ $7.042B ▲ $852.221M ▼
Q4-2024 $331.896M ▼ $8.058B ▼ $6.863B ▼ $856.906M ▼
Q3-2024 $2.191B $9.256B $7.382B $1.465B

Cash Flow Statement

Period Net Income Cash From Operations Cash From Investing Cash From Financing Net Change Free Cash Flow
Q3-2025 $-32.299M ▼ $-41.154M ▼ $247.973M ▲ $-200.979M ▼ $5.384M ▲ $-41.154M ▼
Q2-2025 $-21.789M ▼ $2.149M ▼ $-14.33M ▼ $-4.311M ▲ $-5.277M ▼ $2.149M ▼
Q1-2025 $-14.49M ▼ $31.292M ▲ $34.489M ▲ $-53.805M ▼ $13.295M ▲ $31.292M ▲
Q4-2024 $33.599M ▲ $-27.238M ▼ $-155.352M ▲ $180.219M ▼ $-69.725M ▼ $-27.238M ▼
Q3-2024 $-19.89M $48.913M $-225.847M $208.564M $31.63M $48.913M

Revenue by Products

Product Q3-2024Q1-2025Q2-2025Q3-2025
Environmental
Environmental
 $0 ▲$0 ▲$0 ▲$0 ▲
Other Property
Other Property
 $0 ▲$10.00M ▲$10.00M ▲$0 ▼

Five-Year Company Overview

Income Statement

Income Statement Ambac / Octave’s income picture has been very uneven, which is typical for a company in the middle of a major strategic shift. Revenue has been modest and choppy, reflecting movement away from the old financial guarantee book and toward the newer specialty insurance platform. Profitability swings sharply from year to year, driven by one‑time items, legacy runoff effects, and restructuring rather than a steady, mature earnings engine. There were brief periods of solid operating profit, but they were offset by years of meaningful losses, including the most recent period. Reported earnings per share are especially noisy and not a clean guide to underlying performance. Overall, the income statement shows a business still normalizing after a large transformation, not yet demonstrating consistent, recurring profitability from the new model.

Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet The balance sheet tells the story of a company shrinking and reshaping itself while improving its financial footing. Total assets have come down over time as legacy activities wind down and the firm refocuses on the specialty insurance platform. Debt has been reduced very sharply from earlier years, which lowers financial risk and interest burden. Shareholders’ equity has held up reasonably well through this transition, suggesting the company has managed to preserve a meaningful capital base despite volatility in earnings. Cash reported on the balance sheet is relatively small, but for an insurance group the more important question is the broader investment portfolio and capital strength, not just cash alone. Overall, leverage has become more conservative, which is a positive, while the balance sheet is now more aligned with the new business mix.

Cash Flow

Cash Flow Cash flow has been volatile but shows signs of improvement compared with the early years in this period. Earlier on, operating cash flow was negative, reflecting restructuring, runoff, and the lingering impact of the legacy guarantee business. More recently, operating cash flow turned positive in the middle of the period, then flattened out again, which mirrors the stop‑start nature of the income statement. Capital spending is minimal, so free cash flow is largely the same as operating cash flow. That means the core issue is not heavy investment drains but rather achieving stable, recurring cash generation from the new specialty insurance platform. The trend suggests progress from the most challenging years, but the cash profile is not yet consistently strong or predictable.

Competitive Edge

Competitive Edge Ambac, now operating as Octave Specialty Group, has repositioned itself as a focused specialty insurance and MGA platform, which gives it a differentiated, but still developing, competitive position. Its strengths include a clear “pure‑play” strategy in specialty insurance, a platform that supports multiple niche underwriting agencies, and the Everspan carrier as an in‑house capacity provider. This structure can be attractive to entrepreneurial underwriters and allows the group to participate in many specialty niches without building everything internally. The dual engine of acquiring established MGAs and incubating new ones offers multiple growth avenues. On the risk side, Octave competes in a crowded specialty insurance and MGA ecosystem, where disciplined underwriting and partner selection are critical. Its success depends heavily on maintaining strong relationships with MGAs, managing risk across many programs, and scaling the platform without loosening standards. The company’s transformation is still relatively recent, so its competitive standing is promising but not yet fully proven across a full insurance cycle.

Innovation and R&D

Innovation and R&D Innovation for Octave is less about traditional R&D spending and more about how it structures and supports its specialty insurance platform. The company emphasizes a tech‑enabled, shared‑services platform for its MGA partners, aiming to speed up product launches, enforce underwriting discipline, and provide data and analytics support. It also intentionally partners with MGAs that bring their own advanced technology, such as streamlined quoting and policy administration tools, rather than trying to build every system itself. Management has highlighted data and artificial intelligence as future investment priorities, but details are still emerging. Overall, Octave’s innovation edge lies in its business model and ecosystem design—combining a fronting carrier, an acquisition arm, and an incubation arm—rather than in headline‑grabbing proprietary technology. The key question is execution: whether these tools and structures actually translate into better risk selection and more efficient growth over time.

Summary

Ambac’s transformation into Octave Specialty Group is the central theme across its financials and strategy. The income statement shows a business still in transition, with earnings dominated by one‑off items and legacy effects rather than stable profits from the new platform. The balance sheet has been cleaned up significantly, with much lower debt and a more focused asset base, which reduces financial risk and better fits the new specialty insurance model. Cash flow has moved from clearly stressed to mixed and uneven, indicating progress but not yet a fully settled cash‑generating engine. Competitively, Octave now operates as a specialized platform for MGAs and niche insurance programs, supported by its own carrier and a clear growth playbook of acquisitions and incubations. Its main opportunities lie in scaling this platform, deepening its MGA network, and leveraging technology and data to differentiate underwriting quality. Its main risks are execution—turning the strategy into consistent profits and cash—along with the usual challenges of specialty insurance cycles and competition. In short, this is a company that has largely completed a structural pivot on paper but is still in the middle of proving that the new model can deliver steady, durable financial performance.

NEWS

November 10, 2025 · 5:18 PM UTC

Ambac Financial Group Rebrands as Octave Specialty Group, Inc.

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November 10, 2025 · 4:05 PM UTC

Ambac Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results

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November 10, 2025 · 8:30 AM UTC

Ambac Financial Group Appoints Karen Beyer Head of Investor Relations

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November 3, 2025 · 8:30 AM UTC

Ambac Financial Group Completes Acquisition of ArmadaCare

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October 28, 2025 · 8:30 AM UTC

Ambac to Release Third Quarter 2025 Results on November 10, 2025

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