Summary of VST Q2 2026 Earnings Call

1Key Financial Results and Metrics

Adjusted EBITDA: $1.767 billion for Q2 2026, a 30% increase from $1.35 billion in Q2 2025.

Generation Segment: Contributed approximately $994 million to Adjusted EBITDA, up from $593 million year-over-year, driven by favorable hedging and higher capacity revenues.

Retail Segment: Contributed approximately $773 million, slightly up from $756 million in Q2 2025.

2026 Guidance: Reaffirmed Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion.

Share Repurchases: Since November 2021, approximately 171 million shares have been repurchased at an average cost of $38 per share, returning over $6.5 billion to shareholders.

2Strategic Updates and Business Highlights

Operational Performance: Achieved commercial availability of over 97% across the fleet during recent heat waves, following successful spring maintenance.

Market Demand: Noted a structurally improved demand environment with record peak loads in PJM and ERCOT.

Data Center Development: Strong activity in negotiations with large load customers, reflecting ongoing demand for power solutions.

Helix Digital Infrastructure Partnership: Announced a partnership with KKR, NVIDIA, and the Kuwait Investment Authority, committing up to $1 billion to develop integrated power solutions for data centers.

3Forward Guidance and Outlook

2027 Midpoint Opportunity: Maintained Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion, despite lower ERCOT forward prices, supported by higher PJM prices and hedging strategies.

Long-term Load Growth: Projected annual load growth of 4%-6% in ERCOT and 2%-3% in PJM through 2030, driven by factors beyond data centers, including industrial reshoring and population growth.

4Challenges and Points of Concern

ERCOT Pricing: Noted recent softness in ERCOT power prices, which is viewed as normal variability but may impact future earnings.

Regulatory Uncertainty: Ongoing regulatory processes and potential delays in project approvals due to audits and policy discussions could affect timelines for new developments.

Market Dynamics: The competitive landscape is evolving, with rising costs for new builds and potential pressures on margins from existing generation contracts.

5Notable Q&A Insights

Data Center Audits: Concerns about potential delays in Texas data center audits were discussed, with management expressing confidence that long-term demand forecasts remain unchanged despite short-term uncertainties.

Contracting Preferences: Customers are still interested in both energy and capacity contracts, with no significant shift towards energy-only deals noted.

Helix Development: Management emphasized the flexibility of the Helix partnership, allowing for tailored solutions based on customer needs while maintaining Vistra’s return targets.

Regulatory Developments: The conversation around co-location and regulatory frameworks in PJM was highlighted, with management advocating for incentives rather than mandates to encourage responsible development. Overall, Vistra Corp demonstrated strong financial performance in Q2 2026, with positive growth outlooks and strategic initiatives, while also navigating challenges related to market dynamics and regulatory environments.