Summary of Warrior Met Coal, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call

1Key Financial Results and Metrics

Net Income: $23 million, or $0.44 per diluted share, compared to $1 million, or $0.02 per diluted share in Q4 2024.

Adjusted EBITDA: $93 million, a 75% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 24% (up from 18% in Q4 2024).

Total Revenues: $384 million, up from $297 million in Q4 2024, driven by a 53% increase in sales volumes.

Sales Volume: Record-high of 2.9 million short tons in Q4 2025, a 53% increase from Q4 2024.

Production Volume: Record-high of 3.4 million short tons in Q4 2025, a 61% increase year-over-year.

Cash Costs: $94 per short ton, down from $120 in Q4 2024.

Free Cash Flow: Negative $28 million in Q4 due to increased capital expenditures and working capital.

2Strategic Updates and Business Highlights

Blue Creek Mine: Longwall operations began eight months ahead of schedule, contributing significantly to production and cost efficiency. Production from Blue Creek reached 1.3 million tons in Q4.

Operational Excellence: The ramp-up of Blue Creek was smooth, enhancing the company’s cost structure and production profile.

Record Production and Sales: Total sales volume for 2025 was 9.6 million short tons, a 21% increase over 2024, while production volume was 10.2 million short tons, a 24% increase.

Reserve Expansion: Successfully finalized two federal coal leases, adding 53 million short tons of reserves.

3Forward Guidance and Outlook

2026 Sales and Production Guidance: Anticipating sales volumes to be approximately 30% higher and production volumes to be over 20% higher than 2025, driven by Blue Creek's full-year contribution.

Market Conditions: Expecting steelmaking coal markets to remain consistent with 2025 levels, but cautious about potential price declines due to ongoing global supply challenges.

Capital Expenditures: Remaining construction CapEx for Blue Creek is projected to be $50 million to $75 million in 2026, with a focus on reducing coal inventory levels.

4Bad News, Challenges, or Points of Concern

Weak Market Conditions: Despite strong operational performance, the steelmaking coal market remains pressured, with concerns about pricing stability and demand.

Price Realization Volatility: Gross price realization declined to 75% in Q4 2025 from 83% in Q3 2025, influenced by a higher mix of High Vol A quality coal and increased freight costs.

Working Capital Build: Anticipated increases in working capital due to higher accounts receivable and inventory levels as production ramps up.

Tax Implications: Uncertainty regarding cash tax obligations in 2026, dependent on pricing conditions.

5Notable Q&A Insights

Pricing Assumptions: Management provided a PLV price assumption range of $185 to $215 per short ton for 2026, acknowledging potential volatility in transportation and royalty costs.

Working Capital Expectations: Anticipated working capital build in the first half of 2026, with a goal to reduce inventory levels throughout the year.

Shareholder Returns: Management expressed intent to return cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, contingent on market conditions and cash flow generation.

Market Dynamics: Concerns about the disconnect between High Vol A and PLV prices, with expectations that this may persist due to supply-demand imbalances. Overall, Warrior Met Coal, Inc. demonstrated strong operational results in Q4 2025, driven by the early ramp-up of the Blue Creek mine, but faces ongoing challenges in the steelmaking coal market that could impact future pricing and profitability.