MEOH — Methanex Corporation

Methanex Corporation Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary

1. Key Financial Results and Metrics:

• Average Realized Price: $351 per tonne.
• Produced Methanol Sales: Approximately 2.2 million tonnes.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $220 million, an increase from Q4 2025 due to higher prices, despite slightly lower sales.
• Adjusted Net Income: $23 million.
• Cash Flow from Operations: Enabled repayment of $60 million of Term Loan A, ending the quarter with nearly $380 million in cash.
• Total Equity Methanol Production: 2.4 million tonnes, slightly higher than Q4 2025.

2. Strategic Updates and Business Highlights:

• Methanex continues to operate its assets safely and reliably, with production in the U.S. and Egypt running at full rates.
• The company is closely monitoring the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on methanol supply and demand.
• Methanex is focusing on integrating OCI assets and progressing its deleveraging goals, with plans to repay approximately $290 million of term loans in Q2 2026.
• The company is evaluating share buybacks if they represent an attractive investment opportunity.

3. Forward Guidance and Outlook:

• Expected average realized price for April and May is projected between $500 and $525 per tonne, indicating a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q2 compared to Q1.
• Methanex anticipates a strong second quarter, driven by higher methanol prices, although there may be delayed recognition of cost increases due to inventory flows.
• The company maintains a production target of 9 million tonnes for 2026, with actual production subject to variability based on gas availability and operational factors.

4. Bad News, Challenges, or Points of Concern:

• The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global methanol supply, significantly affecting trade flows and pricing dynamics.
• Methanol demand remains resilient, but there are concerns about potential demand destruction due to affordability issues in certain markets, particularly in China.
• The structural gas outlook in New Zealand remains challenging, with the potential closure of the Maui gas field impacting future operations.
• Trinidad's gas market is tight, and negotiations with the National Gas Company are ongoing, with uncertainty about future contracts.
• The company faces potential inflationary pressures from rising natural gas and ocean freight costs.

5. Notable Q&A Insights:

• Management indicated that the supply-demand dynamics in the Middle East are fluid, and the extent of damage to infrastructure and plants remains unclear.
• There is skepticism about a quick recovery in supply chains even if peace is declared, with estimates suggesting it could take up to nine months for normalization.
• Methanol pricing in China is driven more by demand than cost, with current prices around $400 to $450 per tonne, while global prices are significantly higher.
• Methanex is prioritizing long-term contracts over spot sales, maintaining a focus on reliability for contract customers.
• The company is cautious about operational plans, particularly in Trinidad and New Zealand, and is considering various outcomes based on gas supply negotiations.

This summary encapsulates the key points from Methanex's Q1 2026 earnings call, highlighting both the positive aspects of their financial performance and the challenges posed by external market conditions.