NMIH — NMI Holdings, Inc.

NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary

1. Key Financial Results and Metrics

• Total Revenue: $183.5 million (record high), up 2% from Q4 2025 and 6% year-over-year.
• Adjusted Net Income: $99.4 million, or $1.28 per diluted share, with a 15.2% adjusted return on equity.
• New Insurance Written (NIW): $12.3 billion, consistent with strong demand for down payment support.
• Primary Insurance-in-Force: Reached a record $222.3 billion.
• Persistency Rate: 12-month persistency at 82.2%, down from 83.4% in Q4 2025.
• Defaults: 8,044 defaults reported, up from 7,661 in Q4 2025, with a default rate of 1.17%.
• Claims Expense: $20.7 million, slightly down from $21.2 million in Q4 2025.

2. Strategic Updates and Business Highlights

• NMIH emphasized its role in providing affordable homeownership solutions through private mortgage insurance, with a focus on supporting borrowers and lenders.
• The company is actively engaging with policymakers to advance housing goals, highlighting bipartisan support for the private MI industry.
• Continued disciplined management of expenses and capital, with a robust balance sheet and significant earnings power.
• Share repurchase program ongoing, with $27.7 million of common stock repurchased in Q1 2026.

3. Forward Guidance and Outlook

• Management expressed confidence in continued growth, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and long-term trends in the housing market.
• While the company does not provide specific guidance, it anticipates that 2026 volume will align with the strong performance seen in 2025.
• The management remains cautious about macro risks and is maintaining a proactive approach to pricing and risk selection.

4. Bad News, Challenges, or Points of Concern

• Default Rate Increase: The number of defaults rose, indicating potential credit normalization, though management remains optimistic about overall portfolio quality.
• Cure Rate Decline: The cure rate decreased to 28% from 31% year-over-year, suggesting some challenges in resolving defaults.
• Loss Severity Trends: There was a slight increase in loss severity, attributed to a higher proportion of defaults from newer vintages with less embedded equity.
• Market Conditions: Rising interest rates could impact refinancing activity and overall market dynamics, with a noted increase in rates from January to March 2026.

5. Notable Q&A Insights

• Management acknowledged that while defaults are increasing, the overall credit performance remains strong, with no significant new risks identified in the portfolio.
• The competitive landscape is described as balanced, with NMIH's NIW growth aligning with market trends.
• The impact of external factors, such as geopolitical events and rising energy prices, is being monitored, but current assessments suggest minimal direct effects on default activity.
• The company is prepared for potential market stress while maintaining a focus on disciplined risk management.

Overall, NMIH reported a strong quarter with record revenues and solid growth in its insured portfolio, while also navigating challenges related to increasing defaults and market dynamics.