FLDDW — Fold Holdings, Inc. Warrant 2021-14.02.30 on Fold Holding -A-

Fold Holdings, Inc. (FLDDW) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary

1. Key Financial Results and Metrics

• Q4 Revenue: $9.1 million, an 8% increase year-over-year.
• Full Year Revenue: $31.8 million, a 34% increase year-over-year.
• Total Transaction Volumes: $960 million for the year, up 46% year-over-year.
• New Verified Accounts: 3,000 in Q4, totaling over 84,000, a nearly 20% increase year-over-year.
• Operating Loss: Year-to-date GAAP operating loss of $27.8 million, compared to $5.8 million in the prior year.
• Adjusted EBITDA: Negative $17.2 million for the year, compared to negative $6.3 million in the prior year.
• Cash and Cash Equivalents: $7.7 million as of December 31, 2025.
• Bitcoin in Treasury: 1,527 Bitcoin, with 1,000 Bitcoin restricted as collateral.

2. Strategic Updates and Business Highlights

• Product Launches:
  • The Fold Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card launched, expected to significantly increase transaction volumes and customer engagement.
  • The Bitcoin Gift Card gained traction, with $722,000 in revenue in Q4, contributing to customer acquisition.
  • The Bitcoin bonus program for enterprises was initiated, starting with Steak 'n Shake, aiming to integrate Bitcoin into employee compensation.
• Partnerships: Collaborations with Visa and Stripe for the credit card, enhancing payment infrastructure.
• Operational Improvements: Significant changes to capital structure, including the elimination of $66.3 million in convertible debt, improving financial flexibility.

3. Forward Guidance and Outlook

• 2026 Expectations: Anticipated revenue growth driven by the credit card rollout, expansion of consumer products, and enterprise business growth.
• Transaction Volumes: Expected to increase progressively throughout 2026 as new products scale.
• Customer Acquisition: The credit card waitlist has over 80,000 potential customers, with plans to accelerate onboarding.

4. Challenges and Points of Concern

• Market Volatility: The Bitcoin price fell from $124,000 to $87,000 by year-end and as low as $60,000 by February 2026, leading to reduced engagement and transaction volumes across the industry.
• Slower Growth Metrics: Despite overall revenue growth, Q4 metrics reflected a slowdown due to industry-wide Bitcoin downturns, impacting user growth and transaction volumes.
• Operational Risks: The need to establish robust fraud and risk controls before scaling the credit card program could limit initial growth.

5. Notable Q&A Insights

• Bitcoin Gift Card Performance: The gift card has shown 20% month-over-month growth since launch, attracting both new and experienced Bitcoin users.
• Credit Card Demand: The waitlist for the credit card is expected to grow, with a focus on ensuring fraud and risk controls are in place before broader rollout.
• Customer Acquisition Costs: The initial cohort from the waitlist is expected to have low acquisition costs due to organic demand and minimal marketing spend.
• Enterprise Partnerships: The Steak 'n Shake initiative is seen as a model for future enterprise partnerships, with significant interest from other businesses to integrate Fold's infrastructure.

Overall, Fold Holdings is positioned for growth in 2026, leveraging new product launches and strategic partnerships, despite facing challenges from market volatility and the need for careful scaling of new offerings.