KSPI — Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz

Kaspi.kz Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary

1. Key Financial Results and Metrics

• Total Payment Volume (TPV): Grew 18% YoY.
• Revenue: Increased by 10% YoY; net income rose by 12%.
• Marketplace GMV: Grew 12% YoY, with a 20% increase when excluding smartphone impacts.
• Fintech Revenue: Up 24% YoY, with a 16% increase in Total Financing Volume (TFV).
• Advertising Revenue: Rose 56% YoY, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth.
• Net Income: Adjusted growth of 21% YoY, with a 24% increase when excluding external factors.

2. Strategic Updates and Business Highlights

• Smartphone Supply Issues: The marketplace growth was impacted by a shortage of smartphones, particularly iPhones, which affected GMV by approximately 8%.
• e-Grocery Expansion: The e-grocery business saw a 53% GMV growth, with plans to expand to more cities and increase dark stores.
• Payment Innovations: Introduction of new payment methods, including QR code payments and a "pay by palm" feature, enhancing consumer flexibility.
• Advertising Services: Launched new advertising tools for merchants, allowing them to easily manage campaigns across platforms like Facebook and Instagram.
• AI Integration: The Kaspi AI Assistant was introduced to help merchants enhance product listings, leading to significant increases in consumer engagement and sales.

3. Forward Guidance and Outlook

• Revenue Growth: Expected to be around 20% YoY for the next year, with a potential recovery in smartphone sales anticipated in March 2026.
• Marketplace GMV Growth: Projected to be between 19% to 21% when excluding smartphone impacts.
• Net Income Growth: Expected to be around 10%, lower than previous estimates due to external factors but could reach 18% to 20% if these factors are excluded.
• Share Buyback Program: A $100 million ADS buyback program is set to commence, indicating a commitment to returning cash to shareholders.

4. Bad News, Challenges, or Points of Concern

• Smartphone Supply Disruption: Ongoing supply issues have significantly impacted GMV and revenue growth, particularly in high-value smartphone sales.
• Regulatory Changes: New taxes on government securities and increased minimum reserve requirements have negatively affected net income.
• High Interest Rates: Rising interest rates have increased costs and could impact future profitability, although a normalization is expected.
• Competitive Pressures: The competitive landscape remains challenging, particularly in the e-commerce sector, as other players also face similar supply chain issues.

5. Notable Q&A Insights

• Hepsiburada Investment Strategy: Management emphasized a focus on quality service over capital investment, with an aim to enhance user experience and merchant engagement.
• Advertising Growth Potential: There is optimism regarding the advertising segment, with expectations that it will grow faster than overall revenue due to improved targeting and ease of use for merchants.
• Smartphone Market Dynamics: Management acknowledged the importance of high-end smartphones in driving GMV and noted that the current supply constraints are affecting all smartphone brands, not just iPhones.
• Future Dividend Policy: While dividends are expected to be reinstated next year, specifics on payout ratios remain undetermined, with management emphasizing a balanced approach between growth investments and shareholder returns.

Overall, while Kaspi.kz demonstrated solid growth in various segments, external factors, particularly related to smartphone supply and regulatory changes, pose significant challenges that the company is navigating as it looks to the future.