KSPI — Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz

Kaspi.kz Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary

1. Key Financial Results and Metrics:

• Net Income: Grew 18% year-over-year (YoY) excluding external factors; consolidated net profit increased by 10%.
• Q4 Performance: Underlying net income growth of 13%.
• Total Revenue: Up 15% in Q4 and 19% for the full year, with underlying net income growth of 10% for the year.
• Transaction Volume (TPV): Grew 14% YoY in Q4 and 19% for the full year.
• Marketplace GMV: Increased by 12% in Q4 and 19% for the full year, despite smartphone sales being down 24%.
• Take Rate: E-commerce take rate reached an all-time high of 13.1% in Q4.
• Dividends: Proposed dividend of KZT 850 per ADS, subject to shareholder approval.

2. Strategic Updates and Business Highlights:

• Consumer Engagement: Monthly transactions per consumer reached 7, indicating strong engagement.
• Innovations: Launched "Pay-by-palm" service with rapid adoption; 0.5 million customers registered in Almaty within three months.
• E-Commerce Focus: Emphasizing growth in e-commerce and delivery services, with significant growth in grocery e-commerce (53% YoY).
• Expansion in Turkiye: Continued focus on increasing consumer engagement and order frequency, with a 19% growth in orders in Q4.

3. Forward Guidance and Outlook:

• 2026 Guidance: Expecting around 20% growth in GMV, TPV, and TFV, including contributions from Hepsiburada.
• Profitability: Targeting adjusted EBITDA growth of around 5%, with a focus on maintaining dividend payments.
• Interest Rates: No assumptions of rate reductions in guidance; potential benefits if rates decrease in the medium term.

4. Bad News, Challenges, or Points of Concern:

• Smartphone Sales Impact: Continued decline in smartphone sales negatively affected marketplace growth.
• Regulatory and Economic Headwinds: Increased taxes and national bank reserve requirements are expected to pressure net income in 2026.
• Competitive Pressures: Observing competitive dynamics in Turkiye, but maintaining focus on quality service rather than competition.
• Operational Costs: Transitioning from m-commerce to e-commerce may increase operational costs, impacting short-term profitability despite higher take rates.

5. Notable Q&A Insights:

• Investment in Turkiye: Management plans to invest in consumer engagement and technology to improve delivery and service quality, focusing on long-term value rather than immediate profitability.
• Fintech Growth: TFV growth expected to slow due to a shift towards lower-ticket items in the marketplace.
• AI Integration: Exploring the use of AI and virtual assistants to enhance merchant efficiency and consumer purchasing experiences, though this topic may require further discussion in the future.

Overall, Kaspi.kz demonstrated strong financial performance in a challenging environment, with strategic initiatives aimed at long-term growth, particularly in e-commerce and fintech, while navigating headwinds related to smartphone sales and regulatory changes.