SERA — Sera Prognostics, Inc.

Sera Prognostics, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary

1. Key Financial Results and Metrics:

• Q4 Revenue: $10,000, down from $24,000 in Q4 2024.
• Full Year Revenue: $81,000, slightly up from $77,000 in 2024.
• Operating Expenses: $9,000,000 for Q4, down from $9,400,000 in the prior year.
• Net Loss: $7,900,000 for Q4, compared to $8,600,000 in Q4 2024.
• Full Year Net Loss: $31,900,000, an improvement from $32,900,000 in 2024.
• Cash Position: $95,800,000 as of December 31, 2025, expected to fund operations through 2028.

2. Strategic Updates and Business Highlights:

• PRIME Study: Successfully published results demonstrating a 56% and 32% reduction in preterm births before 32 and 35 weeks of gestation, respectively.
• Commercial Strategy: Focus on expanding partner programs in Medicaid and commercial payers across 13 states, with plans to increase to 15-17 states by year-end 2026.
• International Expansion: Progressing towards CE marking approval for the PreTRM Global test in Europe, with submissions expected soon.
• Leadership Changes: Strengthened team with new appointments, including Lee Anderson as Chief Commercial Officer and Tiffany Inglis as Chief Medical Officer.

3. Forward Guidance and Outlook:

• 2026 Expectations: Anticipate gradual revenue growth as partner programs mature and real-world evidence is generated.
• Commercial Focus: Plans to run 5-7 partner programs by the end of 2026, with a disciplined approach to scaling operations and expanding market access.
• Investment Strategy: Prioritizing market access, commercial scale-up, and evidence generation while maintaining financial discipline.

4. Bad News, Challenges, or Points of Concern:

• Revenue Fluctuations: Revenue remains modest and subject to fluctuation, indicating challenges in achieving consistent commercial traction.
• High Operating Expenses: Despite a decrease, operating expenses remain significant relative to revenue, leading to substantial net losses.
• Market Adoption Risks: Adoption of PreTRM may be gradual, and the company faces the challenge of converting payer discussions into actionable contracts and coverage pathways.

5. Notable Q&A Insights:

• Payer Engagement: Discussions with payers focus on demonstrating both clinical and economic benefits of PreTRM, particularly the potential reduction in NICU admissions.
• Feedback from SMFM Conference: Positive engagement with providers and leadership, with a focus on making PreTRM more accessible post-PRIME publication.
• Balancing Investments: The company is reallocating resources towards commercial activities while managing the capital requirements for both U.S. and EU launches.
• Diverse Partnership Profiles: Engaging with a variety of partners, including large health systems and employer collaboratives, to tailor approaches that meet their specific needs.

Overall, Sera Prognostics is positioned for growth in 2026, leveraging the PRIME study's publication to enhance market engagement and expand its commercial footprint, despite ongoing financial challenges and the need for sustained operational discipline.