Summary of StubHub Q4 and Year-End 2025 Earnings Call

1Key Financial Results and Metrics

Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS): $9.2 billion for 2025, a 6% year-over-year increase. Excluding the Eras Tour, GMS grew 18%.

Q4 GMS: $2.3 billion, down 8% year-over-year, primarily due to lapping a strong Q4 2024.

Revenue: $1.7 billion for 2025, down from $1.8 billion in 2024; Q4 revenue was $449 million, a 16% decrease year-over-year.

Adjusted Gross Margin: 83% for both the full year and Q4, up from 76% in the prior year.

Adjusted EBITDA: $232 million for 2025 (13% margin); Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $63 million (14% margin).

Free Cash Flow: Nearly 70% conversion of adjusted EBITDA.

Debt Reduction: Total debt reduced by approximately 35%, down to $1.5 billion.

2Strategic Updates and Business Highlights

StubHub solidified its position as a leading global ticketing marketplace with a 50% share of the North American secondary market.

The company is transitioning to a product-led strategy focusing on direct ticket issuance and enhancing its advertising business.

StubHub is leveraging AI to improve operational efficiency and customer experience, particularly in direct issuance capabilities.

The company is prioritizing long-term growth over immediate revenue from new initiatives.

3Forward Guidance and Outlook

For 2026, StubHub expects GMS to grow to between $9.9 billion and $10.1 billion (9% growth at midpoint) and adjusted EBITDA to reach between $400 million and $420 million.

The guidance reflects expectations of continued market share gains in North America and accelerated growth in international markets.

4Bad News, Challenges, or Points of Concern

Q4 results showed a decline in GMS and revenue, attributed to difficult year-over-year comparisons and market share investments impacting short-term profitability.

The company faces regulatory scrutiny, particularly regarding the secondary ticketing market, which could pose risks.

The transition to direct issuance may create operational challenges and requires significant investment in technology and partnerships.

5Notable Q&A Insights

Management acknowledged that while the North American secondary market is strong, the all-in pricing transition will impact growth in the first half of 2026.

Direct issuance is seen as a long-term growth opportunity, with a focus on reducing operational friction for partners.

The advertising initiative is still in its early stages, generating modest revenue, with expectations for more significant contributions in the future.

The regulatory environment remains generally favorable, but ongoing discussions about ticketing practices could affect the market landscape. Overall, StubHub is positioned for growth with a focus on enhancing its marketplace and leveraging technology, despite facing some short-term challenges and regulatory uncertainties.